Like this:

There is a phenomena called the Bradley Effect (also the Wilder Effect) wherein people indicate a greater tolerance toward blacks to pollsters than they do in the voting booth. Some, like blogger Stephen Green at Pajamas Media, are worried that the Wilder Effect might produce a surprising Obama loss on Nov. 4.

Green points out that the Bradley Effect, if it really exists, is likely to be more pronounced in liberal western states than in the South. The explanation for this paradox is that southerners are more likely to tell a pollster exactly what they think about issues of race, whereas residents of states outside the south are more ashamed of their prejudices. I suspect he is correct.

According to Green, “if on election day Obama leads in any given state by “only” 1-5%, then there’s still a very good chance McCain will win that state.”

I’m not so sure. In fact, I suspect that we will likely experience a reverse Bradley Effect.

I suspect that rural whites, particularly in the South, will be more likely to indicate a greater intolerance of blacks to their friends (and perhaps pollsters) than they will in the privacy of the voting booth. In other words, they will guffaw at racist jokes about Obama’s message of CHANGE, but once they get into the booth they will vote according to their economic interests.

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